U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Alabama's 6th District
Gary Palmer win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Palmer by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Gary Palmer
Raised $1.1M · $261K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Elizabeth Anderson
Raised $16K · $3K cash on hand · through Mar 15, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Gary Palmer. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $35K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 22Gary Palmer had raised $1.1MFEC filing
- Mar 15Elizabeth Anderson had raised $16KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›