U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Alabama's 7th District
Terri A. Sewell win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Sewell by 26.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Terri A. Sewell
Raised $2.0M · $3.8M cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Morgan W. W. Murphy
Raised $1.3M · $105K cash on hand · through Jul 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.2 points to Terri A. Sewell. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $151K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 22Morgan W. W. Murphy had raised $1.3MFEC filing
- Jul 22Terri A. Sewell had raised $2.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.1 and D+38.6.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›