U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Alaska at-large
Nicholas Begich III win chance
74%
Typical margin: Begich by 5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Nicholas Begich III
Raised $5.5M · $3.1M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Bill Hill
Raised $1.3M · $516K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Mary Peltola
Raised $152K · $3K cash on hand · through Feb 13, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Nicholas Begich III. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Bill Hill had raised $1.3MFEC filing
- Jul 29Nicholas Begich III had raised $5.5MFEC filing
- Feb 13Mary Peltola had raised $152KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+17.0 and D+7.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›