U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Arizona's 1st District
Jonathan Treble win chance
86%
Typical margin: Treble by 8
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jonathan Treble
Raised $4.5M · $0 cash on hand · through Sep 22, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Thomas James Feely
Raised $2.5M · $794K cash on hand · through Jul 31, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.2 points to Jonathan Treble. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $3.6M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean DCook Political Report
- Sep 22Jonathan Treble had raised $4.5MFEC filing
- Jul 31Thomas James Feely had raised $2.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+4.3 and D+20.2.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›