U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Arizona's 4th District
Greg Stanton win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Stanton by 26.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Greg Stanton
Raised $2.1M · $2.0M cash on hand · through Jul 1, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
M. Zuhdi Jasser
Raised $565K · $342K cash on hand · through Jul 1, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.6 points to Greg Stanton. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $392K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 1M. Zuhdi Jasser had raised $565KFEC filing
- Jul 1Greg Stanton had raised $2.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.4 and D+38.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›