Arizona's 5th District

We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.

90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+28.0 and R+3.6.

No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.