U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Arizona's 6th District
Joanna Mendoza win chance
62%
Typical margin: Mendoza by 2.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Juan Ciscomani
Raised $6.2M · $4.1M cash on hand · through Jul 1, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Joanna Mendoza
Raised $7.4M · $3.3M cash on hand · through Jul 1, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Joanna Mendoza. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $21K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Jul 1Joanna Mendoza had raised $7.4MFEC filing
- Jul 1Juan Ciscomani had raised $6.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+9.9 and D+14.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›