U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Arizona's 7th District
Adelita Grijalva win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Grijalva by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Adelita Grijalva
Raised $2.3M · $428K cash on hand · through Jul 1, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Daniel Butierez
Raised $224K · $11K cash on hand · through Jul 1, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.0 points to Adelita Grijalva. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $2.2M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 1Daniel Butierez had raised $224KFEC filing
- Jul 1Adelita Grijalva had raised $2.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.3 and D+39.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›