U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Arizona's 8th District
Abraham Hamadeh win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Hamadeh by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Abraham Hamadeh
Raised $1.2M · $384K cash on hand · through Jul 1, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Bernadette Greene Placentia
Raised $209K · $190K cash on hand · through Mar 31, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.8 points to Abraham Hamadeh. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $39K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 1Abraham Hamadeh had raised $1.2MFEC filing
- Mar 31Bernadette Greene Placentia had raised $209KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.7 and R+6.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›