U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Arizona's 9th District
Paul Gosar win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Gosar by 18
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Paul Gosar
Raised $580K · $303K cash on hand · through Jul 1, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Danielle Sterbinsky
Raised $354K · $26K cash on hand · through Jul 1, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.2 points to Paul Gosar. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $560.9 in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 1Danielle Sterbinsky had raised $354KFEC filing
- Jul 1Paul Gosar had raised $580KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.2 and R+5.8.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›