U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Arkansas's 1st District
Eric Alan Rick Crawford win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Crawford by 19
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Eric Alan Rick Crawford
Raised $944K · $1.0M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Terri Yarbrough Green
Raised $65K · $12K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.2 points to Eric Alan Rick Crawford. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Terri Yarbrough Green had raised $65KFEC filing
- Jun 30Eric Alan Rick Crawford had raised $944KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.2 and R+6.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›