U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 1st District
Mike McGuire win chance
>99%
Typical margin: McGuire by 22.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Doug Lamalfa
Raised $771K · $720K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Mike McGuire
Raised $1.8M · $153K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
James Gallagher
Raised $1.5M · $333K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to James Gallagher. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $909K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30James Gallagher had raised $1.5MFEC filing
- Jun 30Mike McGuire had raised $1.8MFEC filing
- Jun 30Doug Lamalfa had raised $771KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+10.1 and D+34.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›