U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 4th District
Eric Jones win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Jones by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Mike Thompson
Raised $4.2M · $1.1M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Eric Jones
Raised $8.4M · $656K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Raymond Riehle
Raised $115K · $4K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Eric Jones. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $21K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Raymond Riehle had raised $115KFEC filing
- Jun 30Eric Jones had raised $8.4MFEC filing
- Jun 30Mike Thompson had raised $4.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›