U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 7th District
Doris Matsui win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Matsui by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Doris Matsui
Raised $3.2M · $467K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Kathryn S Ming
Raised $25 · $0 cash on hand · through Jan 28, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Doris Matsui. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.1M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Doris Matsui had raised $3.2MFEC filing
- Jan 28Kathryn S Ming had raised $25FEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›