U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 8th District
John Garamendi win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Garamendi by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
John Garamendi
Raised $489K · $1.2M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Rudy Recile
Raised $20K · $235.29 cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.4 points to John Garamendi. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $48K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Rudy Recile had raised $20KFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30John Garamendi had raised $489KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.4 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›