U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 14th District
Rakhi Israni win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Israni by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Eric Michael Swalwell
Raised $1.7M · $11K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Rakhi Israni
Raised $2.4M · $51K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Wendy Fiona Huang
Raised $41K · $6K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Rakhi Israni. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $2.0M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Wendy Fiona Huang had raised $41KFEC filing
- Jun 30Rakhi Israni had raised $2.4MFEC filing
- Jun 30Eric Michael Swalwell had raised $1.7MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›