U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 21st District
Jim Costa win chance
95%
Typical margin: Costa by 12
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jim Costa
Raised $1.3M · $939K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Lorenzo Rios
Raised $430K · $65K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.5 points to Jim Costa. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $340K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Lorenzo Rios had raised $430KFEC filing
- Jun 30Jim Costa had raised $1.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+0.3 and D+24.2.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›