U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 22nd District
Randy Villegas win chance
61%
Typical margin: Villegas by 2
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
David Valadao
Raised $4.9M · $3.4M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Randy Villegas
Raised $2.6M · $572K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.3 points to David Valadao. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.6M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Jun 30Randy Villegas had raised $2.6MFEC filing
- Jun 30David Valadao had raised $4.9MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+10.1 and D+14.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›