U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 23rd District
Jay Obernolte win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Obernolte by 19
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jay Obernolte
Raised $1.5M · $1.6M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Tessa Lynn Hodge
Raised $79K · $10K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.3 points to Jay Obernolte. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $247K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Tessa Lynn Hodge had raised $79KFEC filing
- Jun 30Jay Obernolte had raised $1.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.0 and R+6.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›