U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 24th District
Salud O. Carbajal win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Carbajal by 27
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Salud O. Carbajal
Raised $1.7M · $3.4M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Robert Bob J Smith
Raised $203K · $47K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.9 points to Salud O. Carbajal. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $42K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Robert Bob J Smith had raised $203KFEC filing
- Jun 30Salud O. Carbajal had raised $1.7MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.9 and D+39.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›