U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 29th District
Luz Rivas win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Rivas by 26
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Luz Rivas
Raised $671K · $377K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Margarita Maria Carranza
Raised $0 · $235 cash on hand · through Apr 15, 2025 · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $37K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Luz Rivas had raised $671KFEC filing
- Apr 15Margarita Maria Carranza had raised $0FEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.0 and D+38.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›