U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 31st District
Gilbert Cisneros win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Cisneros by 25
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Gilbert Cisneros
Raised $705K · $260K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Eric J Ching
Raised $97K · $14K cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.9 points to Gilbert Cisneros. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Eric J Ching had raised $97KFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Gilbert Cisneros had raised $705KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+12.8 and D+37.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›