U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 32nd District
Jake Levine win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Levine by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Brad Sherman
Raised $2.5M · $2.7M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jake Levine
Raised $2.8M · $599.92 cash on hand · through Jul 31, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Larry Thompson
Raised $53K · $955.09 cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Jake Levine. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $584K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Larry Thompson had raised $53KFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 31Jake Levine had raised $2.8MFEC filing
- Jun 30Brad Sherman had raised $2.5MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›