U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 33rd District
Pete Aguilar win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Aguilar by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Pete Aguilar
Raised $4.7M · $3.5M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Eugene Lamonte Weems
Raised $55K · $0 cash on hand · through Aug 18, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Pete Aguilar. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $33K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Aug 18Eugene Lamonte Weems had raised $55KFEC filing
- Jun 30Pete Aguilar had raised $4.7MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›