U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 41st District
Linda Sanchez win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Sanchez by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Linda Sanchez
Raised $1.6M · $416K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Mitchell Lee Clemmons
Raised $2K · $2K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Linda Sanchez. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $826K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Mitchell Lee Clemmons had raised $2KFEC filing
- Jun 30Linda Sanchez had raised $1.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›