U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 42nd District
Robert Garcia win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Garcia by 27
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Robert Garcia
Raised $2.6M · $1.4M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Brian J Burley
Raised $231K · $6K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.1 points to Robert Garcia. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $163K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Brian J Burley had raised $231KFEC filing
- Jun 30Robert Garcia had raised $2.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.8 and D+39.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›