U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 48th District
Brandon Riker win chance
86%
Typical margin: Riker by 8
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Brandon Riker
Raised $2.3M · $21K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jim Desmond
Raised $2.3M · $1.2M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $2.2M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Jim Desmond had raised $2.3MFEC filing
- Jun 30Brandon Riker had raised $2.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+4.2 and D+20.2.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›