U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
California's 51st District
Sara Jacobs win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Jacobs by 26
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Sara Jacobs
Raised $1.6M · $269K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Ricardo Cabrera
Raised $0 · $0 cash on hand · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jun 30Sara Jacobs had raised $1.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+14.0 and D+38.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›