U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Colorado's 3rd District
Jeffrey Hurd win chance
69%
Typical margin: Hurd by 3.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jeffrey Hurd
Raised $3.6M · $1.8M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Alexander George Kelloff
Raised $1.3M · $172K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.4 points to Jeffrey Hurd. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $998K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Likely RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Alexander George Kelloff had raised $1.3MFEC filing
- Jun 30Jeffrey Hurd had raised $3.6MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+15.8 and D+8.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›