U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Colorado's 5th District
Jeff Crank win chance
55%
Typical margin: Crank by 1
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jeff Crank
Raised $2.2M · $1.5M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jessica Willow Killin
Raised $3.1M · $1.6M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.2 points to Jessica Willow Killin. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $289K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Lean RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Jessica Willow Killin had raised $3.1MFEC filing
- Jun 30Jeff Crank had raised $2.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+13.3 and D+11.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›