U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Delaware at-large
Sarah Elizabeth McBride win chance
>99%
Typical margin: McBride by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Sarah Elizabeth McBride
Raised $5.1M · $2.7M cash on hand · through Aug 26, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Joseph Joe Arminio
Raised $7K · $2K cash on hand · through Aug 26, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Sarah Elizabeth McBride. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $2K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Aug 26Joseph Joe Arminio had raised $7KFEC filing
- Aug 26Sarah Elizabeth McBride had raised $5.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›