U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 1st District
Jimmy Patronis Jr. win chance
99%
Typical margin: Patronis by 17
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Jimmy Patronis Jr.
Raised $3.8M · $935K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Jennifer Gay Valimont
Raised $174K · $22K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.3 points to Jimmy Patronis Jr.. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $479K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Jennifer Gay Valimont had raised $174KFEC filing
- Jul 29Jimmy Patronis Jr. had raised $3.8MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.4 and R+5.0.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›