U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 2nd District
Keith Gross win chance
99%
Typical margin: Gross by 17
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Keith Gross
Raised $12.3M · $1.0M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Nicholas Zateslo
Raised $450K · $24K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.4 points to Keith Gross. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.4M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Nicholas Zateslo had raised $450KFEC filing
- Jul 29Keith Gross had raised $12.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.2 and R+4.8.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›