U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 3rd District
Kat Cammack win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Cammack by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Kat Cammack
Raised $2.0M · $877K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Seth Allan Harp
Raised $38K · $3K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Kat Cammack. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $17K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Seth Allan Harp had raised $38KFEC filing
- Jul 29Kat Cammack had raised $2.0MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›