U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 4th District
Aaron P. Bean win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Bean by 18
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Aaron P. Bean
Raised $2.2M · $1.6M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Michael Kirwan
Raised $743K · $163K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.5 points to Aaron P. Bean. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $34K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Michael Kirwan had raised $743KFEC filing
- Jul 29Aaron P. Bean had raised $2.2MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.5 and R+6.0.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›