U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 5th District
John Rutherford win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Rutherford by 18
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
John Rutherford
Raised $727K · $269K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Rachel Grage
Raised $272K · $91K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.4 points to John Rutherford. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $84K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Rachel Grage had raised $272KFEC filing
- Jul 29John Rutherford had raised $727KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.4 and R+5.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›