U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 6th District
Randy Fine win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Fine by 19
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Michael Waltz
Raised $3K · $633K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Randy Fine
Raised $4.3M · $1.2M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Eric Yonce
Raised $326K · $34K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.1 points to Randy Fine. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.4M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Eric Yonce had raised $326KFEC filing
- Jul 29Randy Fine had raised $4.3MFEC filing
- Jun 30Michael Waltz had raised $3KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.1 and R+6.6.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›