U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 14th District
Kathy Castor win chance
79%
Typical margin: Castor by 6
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Kathy Castor
Raised $2.3M · $1.7M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Kevin Steele
Raised $2.6M · $483K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model reads the two war chests as about even.
Other filers in this race raised $2.1M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Jul 29Kevin Steele had raised $2.6MFEC filing
- Jul 29Kathy Castor had raised $2.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+6.3 and D+18.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›