U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 18th District
Scott Franklin win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Franklin by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Scott Franklin
Raised $850K · $961K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Curtis Gibson
Raised $12K · $1K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Scott Franklin. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Scott Franklin had raised $850KFEC filing
- Jun 30Curtis Gibson had raised $12KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›