U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 19th District
James Oberweis win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Oberweis by 17.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
James Oberweis
Raised $5.3M · $2.2M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Victor M. Arias
Raised $58K · $19K cash on hand · through Sep 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to James Oberweis. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $3.5M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 30Victor M. Arias had raised $58KFEC filing
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 29James Oberweis had raised $5.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.5 and R+5.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›