U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 20th District
Debbie Wasserman Schultz win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Schultz by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Debbie Wasserman Schultz
Raised $3.3M · $1.9M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Rodenay Joseph
Raised $99K · $16K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.9M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 29Rodenay Joseph had raised $99KFEC filing
- Jul 29Debbie Wasserman Schultz had raised $3.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.5 and D+39.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›