U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 22nd District
Pia Dandiya win chance
69%
Typical margin: Dandiya by 3.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Michael Carbonara
Raised $4.8M · $37K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Pia Dandiya
Raised $2.3M · $1.3M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.3 points to Michael Carbonara. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $3.8M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Toss UpCook Political Report
- Jul 29Pia Dandiya had raised $2.3MFEC filing
- Jul 29Michael Carbonara had raised $4.8MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+8.6 and D+15.9.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›