U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 23rd District
Lois J. Frankel win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Frankel by 27.5
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Lois J. Frankel
Raised $2.3M · $1.2M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Deborah Adeimy
Raised $163K · $34K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.1 points to Lois J. Frankel. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $512K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 29Deborah Adeimy had raised $163KFEC filing
- Jul 29Lois J. Frankel had raised $2.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+15.1 and D+39.6.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›