U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 24th District
Oliver G. Gilbert III win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Gilbert by 25
Democrat
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Oliver G. Gilbert III
Raised $812K · $229K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Te Brown
Raised $313K · $299K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.4 points to Oliver G. Gilbert III. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $659K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid DCook Political Report
- Jul 29Te Brown had raised $313KFEC filing
- Jul 29Oliver G. Gilbert III had raised $812KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between D+12.7 and D+37.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›