U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 26th District
Mario Diaz-Balart win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Diaz-Balart by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Mario Diaz-Balart
Raised $2.1M · $2.5M cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Nicole Locklin
Raised $348K · $199K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.8 points to Mario Diaz-Balart. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $39K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Nicole Locklin had raised $348KFEC filing
- Jul 29Mario Diaz-Balart had raised $2.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.7 and R+6.3.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›