U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Florida's 28th District
Carlos Gimenez win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Gimenez by 17.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Carlos Gimenez
Raised $601K · $693K cash on hand · through Jul 29, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Phil Ehr
Raised $438K · $455K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.1 points to Carlos Gimenez. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $240K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jul 29Carlos Gimenez had raised $601KFEC filing
- Jun 30Phil Ehr had raised $438KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.0 and R+5.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›