U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Georgia's 1st District
James Morris Kingston win chance
99%
Typical margin: Kingston by 16.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
James Morris Kingston
Raised $1.9M · $294K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Michael McCord
Raised $225K · $147K cash on hand · through Mar 31, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.9 points to James Morris Kingston. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $826K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30James Morris Kingston had raised $1.9MFEC filing
- Mar 31Michael McCord had raised $225KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+28.9 and R+4.4.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›