U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Georgia's 8th District
James Austin Scott win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Scott by 19.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
James Austin Scott
Raised $1.1M · $1.3M cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Kelly Esti
Raised $19K · $2K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.5 points to James Austin Scott. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $142.08 in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Kelly Esti had raised $19KFEC filing
- Jun 30James Austin Scott had raised $1.1MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+31.5 and R+7.1.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›