U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Georgia's 9th District
Sam Couvillon win chance
>99%
Typical margin: Couvillon by 18.5
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Andrew Clyde
Raised $671K · $176K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Sam Couvillon
Raised $716K · $0 cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Nicholas Francis Alex
Raised $156K · $166.63 cash on hand · through Aug 7, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 0.9 points to Sam Couvillon. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $202K in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Aug 7Nicholas Francis Alex had raised $156KFEC filing
- Jun 30Sam Couvillon had raised $716KFEC filing
- Jun 30Andrew Clyde had raised $671KFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+30.9 and R+6.5.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›