U.S. House · Updated Oct 9
Georgia's 10th District
Houston Gaines win chance
99%
Typical margin: Gaines by 17
Republican
Who's running
The numbers behind it
Campaign money
Houston Gaines
Raised $2.3M · $703K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Alexandra Doherty
Raised $220K · $23K cash on hand · through Jun 30, 2026 · FEC filing ↗
Our model counts the money gap as worth 1.0 points to Houston Gaines. Even a 10× gap is worth at most 1.5.
Other filers in this race raised $1.2M in total.
Candidates' own committees only, from fec.gov. Third-quarter reports are due Oct 15.
How the numbers moved
- Sep 23Cook Political Report: Solid RCook Political Report
- Jun 30Alexandra Doherty had raised $220KFEC filing
- Jun 30Houston Gaines had raised $2.3MFEC filing
How we got this number
We blend the polling average (when there is one) with the race's fundamentals: past results, incumbency, the national mood and the money. Then we play the election out 40,000 times, with polling misses that move every race together, and count how often each side wins.
90% of the model's 40,000 simulated elections land between R+29.2 and R+4.7.
No public polls yet, so this forecast rests on the fundamentals alone, with a wider range.
Our method ›